Kenyan Pundit

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Not even a mention of the people who lost their lives! Especially the young people who truly believed they are protesting for a good cause and who were responding to “mass action.”

I predict this is the beginning of the end of ODM. Since it is clear that we will still firmly remain in a tribal math game as far as political assignments and barring the appearance of some new blood, my looking glass says…

Ruto wants the top prize, and this unfortunate backtrack by Raila firmly puts him (Ruto) in the drivers seat. Emboldened by the numbers he can carry in Rift Valley, expect Ruto to work to bring others into the fold as he engineers his ODM takeover. It looks like Ababu is his proxy for Western, turncoat Kalonzo (who’s also against the implementation for Waki) won’t be averse to being wooed for Eastern, Balala will be the Coast proxy, and Uhuru might be open to seeking an effective counter measure to Karua (or at worst the central vote would be split). Raila won’t be left with many cards to play, IF, he decided to split ODM…even some Nyanza guys are starting to build distance. He has Mudavadi, who cannot deliver Western solidly and might be able to make overtures to Ngilu (or gasp! Uhuru) but that’s about it.

It’s all so depressing…ain’t it?

I still believe the Waki issue gives Kenyans a small window to get rid of the whole lot and the rotting institutions that prop them up…or at the very least…an opportunity to get re-energized about radical change… so I will continue to focus my energies on that.

Well then…I really have nothing to add except that in case it wasn’t clear to Odinga before, it should be now…ODM ina wenyewe. He had an opportunity to make it clear who’s running the show and he didn’t…perhaps putting a premium on keeping his slim majority in Parliament…this will definitely come back to bite him in 2012 on whenever the next election will be.

Hat tip to my trusty source! (now if someone can unleash those Waki names…)

The UN’s procurement task force recently unraveled a procurement corruption scandal at the UN offices in Nairobi. You can now read the full report here: un. I just skimmed over it…boy is the process bureaucratic or what? I’m sure there’s lots more stuff going on under the radar if this is what it takes to investigate corruption within the organization. Apparently UN staff have not been happy with the taskforce’s work because it “does not respect their rights” and the task force will soon be disbanded…don’t mess with the gravy train I guess.

Click here for all the juicy details!

My two cents on options for civil society…

First, many organizations (some of who testified before Waki) have powerful testimonials / evidence etc. from that period…I suggest bringing these back to the forefront via media etc- personalize the stories (so that it is not become just an ODM vs PNU story)…young lives were snuffed out, parents who lost a child; victims of police violence; victims of sexual violence, IDPs who are still being neglected and so on. Most of this information is sitting in fancy reports that the average Kenyan has not seen…remind people of what happened, put a human face to what happened…it might be a controversial strategy as far as “inflaming the situation” but frankly it seems like in Kenya the only way to avoid inertia when it comes to political change is a crisis.

Second, why wait for a truth and reconciliation law to be implemented? Maybe start a parallel process led by civil society focused on communities - think a gacaca type process where the focus is on addressing the “smaller fry” as it werem but at the same time build pressure on the need for the big wigs to also also be subject to a process of some sort.

Third, what civil society can do is, if things to get to the stage of an ICC referral (and even for a local tribunal), is work to build a coherent case (think PR really) for why justice is necessary and why the process won’t be “costly” as far as reigniting tensions etc. and also help build a case that can stand up in court - if (big IF) Moreno and co. come knocking looking for answers civil society should be ready with CONCRETE stuff. Pressure must be sustained in a visible manner, maybe with a weekly action - think Mothers of Plaza de Mayo. Attempt private prosecutions, even though Wako will kill that story. Anything (but press conferences and workshops in hotels about the Waki report) to keep the pressure up. It is important to note that the ICC and all other UN-type options require one to first demonstrate the exhaustion of all domestic remedies.

Fourth, international options beyond ICC (hat tip Wangui for input!)
- Pursue procedure 1503 with the office of the UN High Commissioner of Human Rights, especially in the cases where violence was committed by the State apparatus e.g. police. It is a cumbersome process, but taken quite seriously by the UN. Resource-wise, I’m sure this could be pitched to law school clinics in Kenya and internationally for pro-bono assistance in putting a complaint together.
- For the gender-based violence, submit a complaint to the Commission on the Status of Women.

Any other thoughts out there?