Kenyan Pundit

Analogies are being made between the current situation in Zimbabwe and the aftermath of the elections in Kenya. Others argue that the two are completely different. What worries me (apart from the prospect of Mugabe’s return) is that the possible development of a new trend of “civilian coups” in Africa. Nigeria and Ethiopia managed to quickly fade away from people’s consciousness, perhaps because of the lack of accompanying “tribal warfare” (numerous opposition activists were killed and detained in Ethiopia but the story never developed legs, no thanks to the international community rolling over and playing dead). The playbook seems to be largely the same - conduct elections without the previous obvious unfair tactics like making it impossible for the opposition to hold rallies; refuse to implement fundamental constitutional and legal changes in the run-up to the election e.g. to allow for an impartial electoral commission, to allow for a credible election petitions court; delay results announcement to cause confusion/fear; manipulate results in that period; jump on the increased atmosphere of tension/protests etc. to implement “security” measures; black out the media; declare yourself president; muted expressions of protest your fellow African leaders [or some variation of the above].

What really disturbs me is that we are heading in a direction where elections are no longer going to be a credible/legitimate option for citizens who want change in Africa. And I’m not talking about rigging in the fashion of empty ballot boxes and all, but a complete undermining of the whole idea of changing governments by elections and the idea that when you vote you are exercising your democratic right. I regularly complain about the lack of engagement and activism from the class that has the wherewithall in Kenya to do so, but lets face it, most of us are content (no matter what your social status is) to let someone else to the dirty work and someone else do the leading…it’s just how things are (even democracy relies on that innate feeling). However, the ability to exercise your right to vote is an important outlet not just for those who feel it’s as far as they want to take their contribution to improving the political status quo, but also for those who feel that it’s the only non-violent way they can make their voices heard…take that away and where does that leave us?

For updates Zimbabwe, check out Comrade Fatso’s blog.

Popularity: 92% [?]

This is for Sijui

So I tend to avoid blogging about SA politics on this blog, because I don’t have much of a local perspective beyond what I get from the local media (I’ve found SA to be a difficult place to integrate into/get localized, but that’s a story for another day).

With the Polokwane conference coming up in two weeks, and Zuma managing to surprise everyone by getting support beyond Kwa Zulu Natal and Mpumalanga (the ANC Women’s League has picked him as a candidate! And the vote in Eastern Cape - Mbeki’s traditional stronghold was close. Can you say shocking?!), the mood is generally one of trying to come to grips with the idea of a Zuma presidency.

I was one of the many people who argued that while Zuma had popular support, he’d never get enough support from the delegates to become the ANC President - the delegates would be more sensible and more insulated from popular pressure…we presumed. Not. And then there was always the expectation that a compromise candidate would emerge (Cyril Ramaphosa, Kgalema Motlanthe came up frequently). That didn’t happen either.

So what did happen?

When thinking about this post it occurred to me that there are similarities with the current political situation in Kenya. Zuma being analogous to Raila - both are polarizing figures, popular with the masses, paid their dues in the struggle for democracy, feared by the business community (except Indians who are supporting both candidates behind the scenes), already being tagged as a despot, shady financial dealings in the past, great public presence, etc. And Mbeki being analogous to Kibaki (well aside from the intellectual part) in having presided over a strong economy but with little trickle down to the majority, being perceived as aloof, surrounded by a loyal cabal, etc.

Both the Mbeki and the Kibaki groups thought a Zuma / Odinga presidency was far-fetched and they let the respective candidates get a lot of traction on the premise that “the people” would be smart enough to see that their opponents are heavy on rhetoric and light on everything else. I think Mbeki and Kibaki also suffered from a sense of hubris. Mbeki more than Kibaki.

Mbeki should never have run for a third term, in my opinion, and instead should handed over to someone who had more appeal across the party or worked to cultivate a compromise candidate - in sticking around he has done much more harm than good and has threatened both his legacy and the strength of the ANC. I don’t think he realized how alienated he was. Then again his whole life has been the ANC, so I can sort of understand the reluctance to leave the helm (buying the well-received biography of Mbeki by Mark Gevisser this week to get more insight into the man. But I digress. They are calls for him to quit the race now, but I highly doubt he will step down - he’s going to fight till the end.

Similarly, Kibaki has made many unnecessary missteps in his quest for a second term and is now scrambling to turn this around, when he should have ditched the old fogeys surrounding him a long time ago (I mean Moody as V-P, he could have easily pulled Rift Valley or Western with a younger, switched on person and I could go on and on…. Yes the country has made strides under Kibaki, but a lot of people are still on the sidelines and there’s no indication that they will be brought in during the next five years. Is Raila going to do things differently? Who knows? But the general sense on the ground is that Kenyans need change and if ODM messes up they’ll also be voted out. In South Africa, lots of people are also feeling left out and disenchanted by where things are post 1994 (whether this is fair on Mbeki is another post). There is a yearning for more radical change. Will Zuma’s left leanings really be translated in to better policies for the masses? Who knows? But they are willing to take the chance.

Gosh this is beginning to read like a composition

My two cents (disclaimer: at this point in time…hehehe) Zuma and Raila will likely be elected President; they will find themselves hobbled by the realities of governing a country and won’t be as radical as they sound now - the danger, I think, is not so much them as individuals (can we say bogeymen?), but rather the constituencies they are appealing to right now. They are appealing to people with very little to lose, and whose expectations are going to be sky high - what happens when folks realize they’ve been taken for a ride (which I believe will happen)? How Zuma and Raila manage their constituencies once in power will be the true test of what their impact as Presidents will be.

OK that’s it for now…got to get back to stuff that pays the bills.

Stay tuned for Monday night quarter-backing. Hopefully I won’t have too much egg on my face!

Popularity: 20% [?]

- Hot on the heels on the lack of decent hotels in Nairobi is this piece on Paris Hilton’s trip to Rwanda. Let’s all get together and say a prayer for her to survive Africa.

- PC Magazine’s Top 100 blogs of 2007.

- Bankelele has a great post up on Nairobi town clerk - John Gakuo - I’m sure many of us can attest to the fact that Nairobi has greatly improved during his tenure…and a key bell-weather (for some of us at least!) is the ability to hang out in town and have a drink after work with no worries…and I can’t remember the last time I saw Nairobi so well lit at night.

- Mzalendo is currently piloting an effort to build content on the site by working with constituency-based journalists and citizen reporters (who write for us for a fee), check out the initial profile of Gichugu constituency.

Popularity: 19% [?]

Was interviewed last week for a neat radio show (and not just because they had me on!) called Spark, check it out.

Popularity: 24% [?]

“The World Bank Group and its partners announce the Development Marketplace for African Diaspora in Europe (D-MADE) Grant Competition. The competition seeks innovative project ideas from entrepreneurial African diaspora in Europe that generate employment, business support, training and incomes for the poor and disadvantaged. Ten to 15 winners will receive grant funding up to $40,000. All proposed projects must be implemented in sub-Saharan Africa. The competition is open to participants of sub-Saharan African origin residing in Europe. Proposals are welcome from a broad range of innovators, including entrepreneurs, private businesses, nongovernmental organizations, foundations, universities, research entities, and individuals.”

Proposal Deadline: 4.00 p.m. Brussels time, November 23, 2007.

See the website for details.

Popularity: 13% [?]