Off to bed, back in the am.
|
|||||
Break timeOff to bed, back in the am. 54 comments to Break time |
Kenyan Blogs
People Magazine is so 2004Potpourri
Stay Informed |
||||
|
Copyright © 2024 Kenyan Pundit - All Rights Reserved Powered by WordPress & Atahualpa |
|||||
Hello Ory
Happy siesta. Paka akitoka…..hahaha.
Allow me to hijack your pundit for just 15 seconds
So I did what I said I would do…..doodled around with current results to predict the new President of Kenya. There are several assumptions in my calculations:
1. That voter turnout is on average 70% for each province (I got this number based on Ory’s report that the lowest recorded turnout was 57% in Funyula)
2. Using current Nationmedia results on a province by province breakdown I used the percentage result for each of the 3 main candidates to predict the overall votes per province.
3. Assumptions that there is no major cases of rigging and electioneering. Other than that everything is very straightforward
Results:
Kibaki 4216672 million votes Approx 43%
Raila 4753857 million votes Approx 47%
Kalonzo 10357772 votes Approx 10%
Sidenote: On obvervation of my Nyanza statistics (I had to stay uniform) Raila’s real results might be a little higher and Kibaki’s a little lower given the fact that most of Kibaki’s nyanza votes are coming from Kisii which have already been counted giving him an edge percentagewise in my Nyanza calculation and giving Raila only 86% in Nyanza which we know is not really the case
Other than that I expect everything else to be fairly accurate on the baseline assumptino of 0.7% voter turnout.
Congratulations Raila
You win hahaha.
now bring the daggers….Happy New Year!
BTW
Here is how I arrived at my results:
1. I calculated the performance of each of the 3 candidates percentage wise based on the current ACTUAL results from nationmedia.com.
2. I used the 0.7 voter turnout assumption and the voter registration statistics from the ECK website to arrive at the approximate number of total votes expected per province.
3. I distributed votes per province to each candidate based on their current precentages from actual nationmedia.com statistics that I got in 1.
Nothing else, no rigging, no double voting.
lets see how my results will hold..
take care kenyans.
Looking at the results I wondered what it would be if the “tribal factor” was removed and the votes that counted towards “tribalism” were eliminated. So I simply cut out Eastern Province (Musyoka), Central (Kibaki) and Nyanza (Raila) from the results….giving
Kibaki 28%
Raila 52%
Kalonzo 16%
so…..
Anyways im all played out the final results will speak for themselves meanwhile it has been fun rumor mongerinng now that i have my results, hasta lavista!
Thanks for the update, You are a true patriot.
Guys … arewe reading fromthe same script? have you checked the latest presidential result postings from nationmedia.com?
Do not celebrate yet…
candy
Kibaki 3.2+
Raila 3.4+
Haha…….untilthe last results are in…..nothing to celebrate yet!!
so just chill..
Guys
Relax. That is expected ala. The results of Kibaki are looking the best they have looked because central guys have been frantically counting the votes becaues they are eager to close the gap. Over 92% of Central votes have already been counted. Expect Raila’s lead to pick up over Kibaki from now until the end of the tally and the margin is goinng to be small. Raila will win this election by about 600 000 votes as stated in my laborious calculations. Trust the math ala :).
Here is how Raila will win over Kibaki
Raila, as per my calculations is expected to get about 1.75 Million votes in the Rift Valley. Right now he has about 1.25M which means that he should get about 0.5M.
Kibaki right now has about 420K in the Rigt. I expect him to have 580K by the end of the tally which means he will gain about 160K votes.
Overall after Rift Valley Raila will be leading Kibaki by 450K votes plus the 150K he has now on the overall 600-700K lead win for Raila.
Its great to see how technology can influence politics. However, after trawling the net looking for a shot to quench my insatiable need for election outcome news, I must say I am very dissapointed with the speed at which ECK is releasing information.:mad:
Now that the wind of change has started, perhaps its the time for Kivuitu to style up his house, lest smell the coffee…
Please keep up posted by the minute….
BigB
We can’t celebrate until eck final result which will be the official count. C’mon guys!!
ha ha…
can t wait for evil lucy to leave state house
The longer the results take to come in, the more anxious I get. I really hope they are COUNTING the votes and not finding some shady way to rig. Hassani, I can’t help but agree with you, although I wouldn’t go as far as calling Lucy evil.
For those of you who are anxious, allow me to alleviate your anxiety.
My initial calculation for Final Results for Central were as follows:
Kibaki 1488619.924
Raila 30101.40755
Kalonzo 11678.16835
Word in is that over 94% of central votes have been counted and the ACTUAL results are:
Kibaki 1477611
Raila
27855
Kalonzo 10475
Just to show you im not bluffing
At the time I made the predictions the votes were as follows:
Kibaki 1314474
Raila 26580
Kalonzo 10312
Hebu let me post this first and use another province
you guys are ridiculous.Why are you so quick to declare Raila the president.Remember the days of Al gore?i WONDER IF YOU ARE ALL lUOS.IF SO THERE GOES THE TRIBAL THING AGAIN.I DON’T MIND A PRESIDENT WHO IS A LUO AND IAM KIKUYU AM BEYONG THAT CRAP AS LONG AS THE ELECTION IS FREE AND FAIR.JUST STOP THIS MAD RUSH TO CONCLUSION AS THIS IS WHAT NORMALLY CAUSES RIOTS AND CONFUSION.WHICH WE ALREADY KNOW LUOS ARE FAMOUS FOR.pundit ..good job man keep up the good work.
Gaisha me Im just having fun with my predictions hakuna ukabila hapa. Im trying to see if I need to move to vegas and play those tables lol…I could care less for what happens in Kenya at the moment those guys are all jokers.
i hate the name calling now that we are ushering in the new crop for the year 2008-2012. stop addressing people with their tribe gaisha94. be mature! arrogance aside. just be polite.
thanks !!! KenYa
A bit too early to call in the final results. Kibaki is trailing Raila by a mere 200k – according to Nation figures. It seems like we really won’t know the final result until Kivuitu calls it.
Until then, good job Ory. I hope you are getting a good rest and will keep us posted throughout tomorrow (Sat.)
In this age of advanced technology ECK “wametupa mbao” most of these Guys need to move out of the way and allow quick efficient and effective minds to serve kenyans The style of information delivery is to say the least apalling. The ECK website still has the presidential candidates at one million and sevehundredthousand respectively.. Oh my GOD! are we still in the stone age? how quickly we tarnish goodwill when our inefficiency is exposed
Lol, Gaisha94, thank God the results show that tribalism is OUT THE DOOR…!!!
I said ealier b4 yu guys start name calling along tribal lines that all we need is a PRESIDENT FROM THE TRIBE KNOWN AS KENYA!! But only out of free and fair results!! Thats is…
Have fun waiting guys…..:wink:
hi Ory,
I’d like to know, how is Nation able to get all these results while ECK still hasn’t? How are the media houses getting their numbers and why can’t the ECK use the same strategy to relieve Kenyans of all this anxiety?
Nation has a pdf with parliamentary numbers from some of the constiuencies. Does anyone know if these are final numbers?
And thanks Ory – you’ve been the best source for up-to-date info. Glad I found you.
wenye wanasema ati Raila ndio prezo…stop jumping into conclusions…who knows…maybe Kalonzo is the next prezo…..<>>>lol
anywaiz.this is serious bzness…..
http://en.epochtimes.com/news/7-12-27/63326.html
while Ory is in breko….cheq out this site,,,who r we supposed to believe
i think kibaki will pull a bush-2000.last minute upset.
Hey guys, Get this straight, that site talks of exit polls not popular vote, the two are as different as day from night.
*typo: holding back the results to prevent chaos, as someone said
Guys, its unfair to crap on Ory’s blog while she’s taking her break from keeping us posted. BTW Ory, thanks for the great job keeping us in the know. ECK is showing such staggering ineptitude and most of the other webpages have conflicting info. Anyway, seems its the whole thing is too close to call as yet. Hopefully, no rigging is going on.
I just watched latest kbc news live at the ECK briefing.the agents for the parties kina Ruto,Nyagah have tempers flaring about the delay of tallying of votes.It was a back and forth argument i even thought chaos were about to erupt in that briefing.They had to cut the meeting short the ECK commissioners saying they will address the questions later.It looks like it might be hard for both parties accepting the verdict especially incase odm loses the presidency.
An exit poll is like an opinion poll in some sense. In the Kenyan case it was taken in selected constituencies by an independent party: the CMD, those polls are quite faulty, look at the Bush vs Keryy vote.
the total numbers so far for the presidential total vote are from only 139 constituencies.
Raila is leading by how many votes? can someone pliz update us
yes and the reuters story was a sad one too, coz the so called exit was based on 273 out of 27,000 p0lling stations. and you can be sure nobody had time to mess with who ever that was asking the question. i even doubt it if it was a valid sampling. On the prezy, please… nyinyi wacheni mambo…. this has been won. all there is left, is for the formality to follow and elect. com. will do as good to try speeding it a bit. ama?
Fsr you can go check nationmedia.com then click elections 07.my browser wont open the page.the last time i checked 9pm ET. raila 3.3m kibaki 2.97m.that was 3hrs ago
DN is showing raila 46.7% and kibaki 45% nothing is moving but central. i wonder. call all the polling station like in RV etc to forward results but central for the last 1hr?
sorry for my typo there.. i meant all stations appear startic but central. i wonder why?
now its showing raila 47% kibaki 45%
LOL
Probacks I hear you.
Ory my dear I know you are bout to wake up so I would like to formally apologize for having hijacked your blog while you were sleeping. I only did this coz I know that you have wide readership and people love your blog….
Anyways I think my time is up Ory don’t collapse when you wake up. We luv you.
KenyanCommentator
PS: I wish I had a blog lol.
Probacks, Kazi imeisha, they have been tallying only central province, which is as good as done. Now we remain with upper Eastern which again will come in in doves. But don’t forget RV has like 1M votes unannounced, NBI and Coast which Rails will take and continue the lead. Mwaisha Bora
Kenyan commentator go easy on the Newyork times, we don’t want foreigners involved in our national politics
exactly at what point did Ory’s informative blog turn into a political chat room? And what is the deal with all the bad mouthing and accusations? Can we find a better way to address each other?
Come one Kenyans, we know better than that. Plus it is not just Kenyans reading this blog, non Kenyans do too. And do we want to sound like people straight out of the 1600s? I hope not.
We may not share political views, but that is good. Pluralism will take us places – if we use it well.
Let’s engage each other constructively and with tact, our political differences notwithstanding. We owe it to those who have made Kenyan the peaceful country that it has been thus far.
Ory has been very kind and generous, both in keeping us updated and in providing a valuable space where we can discuss the kind of Kenya we want to see.
If I might, I would suggest we follow her example: keep our discussions civil and productive, with an eye toward the “we” we want to become.
If nothing else, I’d ask we respect her blog as a place for reasoned and productive conversation, following the spirit in which she has been writing for many years.
As a side note, Ory, thank you for your coverage. It has been invaluable.
Keguro
well said ken.
thanks
Guyz guyz easy! go easy!no need of going back and forth at each other.lets look at the positive.the people’s voice has spoken like never before partly because of the huge democratic space allowed by the current president.hopefully we keep moving in the right direction as a country
I just called my family back in Kenya and am told that the ECK silence is causing chaos already. They darn better release them to avoid worse things happening.
Hi,
What happened to the peaceful elections? Anyway Kibaki is closing his gap and people cannot accept it. Do not head downtown as I hear. Myself am safe and far away.
Ory thanks for what you’ve done for past couple of days and i think it’s getting ugly. You’ve been a source of lots of information for me while away from home and you’re one of the those that MAKE PROUD TO BE KENYAN. Keep up your good work.
lol..it seems that Ory is back.
Bye guys. Its been a blast.
Ory have a great Saturday and keep us posted.
This info from kenyaelections.com is what seems close to the true picture at the moment. could we just try and avoid being emotional and post helpful info on Orys blog.
Raila Retains Slight Lead – Provisional Results 06.00 GMT
Written by William Ang’awa
Saturday, 29 December 2007
PRESIDENTIAL PROVISIONAL RESULTS AS AT 06.00 GMT [56% OUT OF 14.2 MILLION VOTES COUNTED]:-* 29TH December 2007
RAILA ODINGA-3,974,715 (49.1) (27.81% of the 14.2 m registered voters)
MWAI KIBAKI -3,580,602 (44.3) (25.05% of the 14.2 m registered voters)
KALONZO MUSYOKA-535,363 (6.6) (3.75% of the 14.2 m registered voters)
Raila is leading Kibaki by only 394,113 votes a lead of 4.8%
*Provisional results are unconfirmed. PROVISIONAL PALIAMENTARY SEATS WON BY PARTY (WITH 56% OF VOTES COUNTED):-
ODM-91
PNU-32
ODM-K-12
KANU-7
SAFINA-4
NARC-3
PICK-2
NEW FORD-K-3
UDM-1
SISI-1
DP-1
MGPK-1
TOTAL-157 [out of 210] * Note 53 more seats to be declared.
Analysis: kenyaelections.com study group
Thanks Ory,
This blog is quite informative. Truly hope that REGARDLESS of the winner, we all remember to be kind to each other. The comments here are also largely devoid of tribal vitriol that is so prevalent on some blogs that cover the elections. Thanks everybody