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Diary 14 – What way forward?

By Nits

he call for immediate new elections as a way forward out of the current crisis is not a feasible solution. Elections in order to be credible to all sides must be free, fair, and transparent. This is not possible given the current state of Kenya. The last estimate of displaced people is now nearly 250,000. Most from Rift Valley province and Nyanza. There are also thousands displaced from Nairobi. The likelihood of any of these people being able to cast a ballot is nill. This cleansing of supposed Kibaki supporters from opposition strongholds would automatically lend an air of voter intimidation and fraud to any new election. Even if anyone is left in oppostion areas that would be considered “supportive” of Kibaki the likelihood of them coming out to vote is very small. What person would dare venture out to cast a ballot with the very real threat of violence hangs over their head?

So this would lead to opposition areas having a nearly 100% turnout for Raila. On the flip side Central province and parts of eastern province would have nearly 100% turnout for Kibaki. As what supposed opposition supporter is going to venture to the polls in these areas as well?

The end result would most likely be a Raila victory, but it would be a victory that the Kibaki camp could credibly claim was gained by the cleansing of their supporters and subsequent disenfranchisement from large sections of the country. This lack of credibility would put Kenya exactly back in the same spot as it is now. With a president who gained power through a very flawed electoral process and who is believed by a large portion of the country to have unsurped power through manipulation and deceit.

Neither will a government of national unity work. Kenya had a government of national unity in 2002. Lest we forget Kibaki Tosha! The promises made in 2002 that led to Raila stepping aside for Kibaki were never fulfilled. Kibaki promised to run for only one term and also to make Raila prime minister after the constituion was reworked. Thus setting Raila up for the presidency in 2007. There is the old adage of “fool me once, sham on you, fool me twice, shame on me.” Raila has no confidence that Kibaki would keep any promises made to him now. Further what position could Kibaki offer Raila that would satisfy him? Raila feels he has been cheated out of the presidency. Kibaki is not going to give it to him, so where does that leave Raila- out in the cold, anything less than the presidential throne is nothing but leftovers. Also accepting a position in the government would be at least a tacit acknowledgement that Kibaki is the legitimate ruler of Kenya. This I don’t see Raila doing.

So where does that leave the country now? For the near future it means Kenya is basically locked in a stalemate. Both sides are evenly matched in terms of power and influence. Kibaki will never admit to rigging nor will he resign. Raila will never acknowledge Kibaki as a legitimate president and join his government nor call off the demonstrations.

This means the country will probably continue to see episodes of violence instigated by both sides as they seek to gain the upper hand in the battle. The economy will suffer as tourists stay away, agriculture is unable to be exported and foreign investors bail out of the country due to insecurity.

So what way forward? The only real way forward would be for both Kibaki and Raila to put Kenya first and their egos and pride second. Both would have to jointly agree to step aside from power. An agreed upon interim government would have to be appointed. This government would have neither Kibaki nor Raila at its head but a jointly agreed upon neutral person. Cabinet positions would be allocated by the proportion of MP’s all parties have in parliment.

Fresh elections would be called after a period 6 months to 1 year. Giving enough time for the interim government to ensure all those displaced could either go home or find a new place to live.

Neither Raila nor Kibaki could run again for president. The interim leader would also not be able to run. The elections would be overseen by a neutral third party, most likely the UN. This is the only way for the elections to be considered credible by Kenyans and accepted as legitimate.

What is the likelihood of this happening, almost zero. The egos of these two leaders is bigger than their love of the country. The desire for power, like a drug, is leading both of them to destroy the very country they profess to love and want to lead. There is an old saying of “When elephants fight it is the grass that suffers” Never has this been more true.

12 comments to Diary 14 – What way forward?

  • Said

    Nits,

    Great analysis on the way “forward”, except one thing. It’s one person who stole the presidency, so why should the other also be punished by being barred from running again? If the other is accused of instigating physical violence (and let it be proved, as the electoral fraud was proved) then those may be firmer grounds for barring him from re-contesting in the event of a re-election.

    It is unfortunate that people confuse fairness with dishing out equal doses of punishment to both parties. That is a travesty of justice.

  • ern

    Your so called way forward is actually many steps backward..back to the Moi era of dictatorship. Raila and ODM team are credited with the democratic freedoms we now enjoy in kenya…what is it with people who think a 76 year old man who is ailing can run a country of many ethnic groups like kenya…the way forward is kibaki to stand down…simple he stole the election (thief -cum-president), what else is he stealing from the people that has not been revealed. Look who is not negotiating in good faith, look who is heavy handed…I submit kibaki is a dictator and his cronies not much different. The majority of the people of Kenya, I included know the president of kenya is Raila Odinga.

  • Susan

    Nits,
    My thoughts exactly.
    Great minds think alike.

  • Edwin Thomas

    Kenya: Has The USA Changed Its African Policy? Or What
    see
    http://www.africanpath.com/p_blog.cfm?blogID=139

  • Annah

    Nits,

    This is a great article, but I have to agree that barring people from running for president is a bad idea…not to mention an anti-democratic one. I am also suspicious of such arguments because they usually lead to the Kalonzo is the solution conclusion when it is beyond obvious that Kalonzo Musyoka is merely an opportunistic and, therefore, corrupt politician. I still think that Raila Odinga’s history of struggle for democracy in Kenya make him the best candidate.

    Everyone, except perhaps Kibaki, his cronies and the US, seems to believe that a new election is the only way forward.

  • Ishara

    @ Nits,

    Your “only real way forward” seems sophomoric and not just to me by the looks of other responses here.

    In every election, there is a winner and a loser.

    For those like myself who pursued elected office at college level (student government), it is imperative that the win or loss is transparent and devoid of irregularities of the magnitude and proportions seen 27th Dec 2007. When I first ran for office I lost….I did not resort to stuffing ballots to nullify the rights of the student body to elect their representatives, I did not coerce the student government secretary to have me declared the winner nonetheless. There were no neutral observers raising hue and cry about tallying irregularities, I simply lost.

    Yes, it was hard to take but the students had spoken and decided to support the candidate with whom they identified and thought should represent their concerns to the College Administration, Faculty and Board of Regents.

    I had no right to impose my will on them.

    The best I could do since I still wanted to get elected was to keep working at convincing my fellow students that I was the better candidate and run a better campaign the next time. I did, and I did get elected President.

    I got elected without having to resort to any of the abovementioned extremely damaging theatrics.

    The voice of the electorate must always, always be respected.

    Elected leaders know or they should know that their elevation to leadership position is NOT permanent. If at any time the electorate finds fault with their President or other leader for his/her leadership style, economic priorities, social policies, ethics, moral stand or for any reason under the sun…they are free to withdraw their support and bequeath that leadership mandate to the leader of their choice.

    It doesn’t even have to be for a good reason, say, they do not like his socks or her shoes!

    That, too, is fine.

    It does not matter, what matters (again) is that voice of the electorate must always, always be respected.

    The message sent by prohibiting both Kibaki and Odinga from running again “to demonstrate love for their country” is that the next time around one candidate commits electoral fraud, the candidates that raised the alarm about the fraud will get penalized as well.

    In that case why bother running a clean campaign? Why not let everyone get down and dirty?

    Where’s the justice or resolution in that proposal?

    We have to teach Kenyan politicians that crime DOES NOT PAY and we cannot succeed in doing this if EVERYBODY needs to penalized for what SOMEBODY did.

    At what Court do you see both the defendant and plaintiff get sentenced and jailed in the interests of propagating a crime free society?

    Just a question.

  • Nits

    Rightly or wrongly Raila will forever be linked in the minds of the nearly half of Kenya who voted for Kibaki, with the violence and expulsion of 250,000 Kenyans from Rift Valley and the slums of Nairobi. That is reality. You can argue that it was the government that was responsible for the violence but in the minds of many the blame will always lie with Raila and ODM. This is why Raila should not run again. It is not undemocratic for a person to agree not to run for president. He would show true leadership by understanding that what is best for the whole country now, is someone who all Kenyans can accept as president. Raila after the events of the last few weeks is not that person anymore. Neither is Kibaki. I also don’t think it is Kalonzo after he accepted the vice presidency.

    It would “feel good” to those who support ODM to have justice and somehow wave a magic wand and Raila is president. The cold hard reality is that it is very unlikely to happen. Also consider at what cost to the country? What are you willing to sacrifice for a Raila presidency?

    Kenya is at a crossroads, the country is in very real danger of tearing itself apart and plunging into civil war. The choices that are made now by both sides of this disaster are going to determine if the future of Kenya is stability or war.

    There was a question as to what court jails both defendant and plaintiff? The answer is in politics it is often the court of public opinion who condemns both sides regardless of their true guilt or innocence.

  • Ishara

    The ‘right or wrong’ phrase is a euphemism for defending the indefensible, there is no defending the illegal and even criminal actions that occurred at the ECK headquarters in KICC or perpetrated by the ECK commissioners/returning officers as our ballots were tallied that now the nefarious have resorted to the tried and true-‘right or wrong’ fallacy.

    The ‘right or wrong’ rationale is in fact part and parcel of the problem and not the solution. It’s that kind of reasoning that got us into the mess we’re in right now!

    This is my reality: I happen to CARE about whether things are done the ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ way (and not just our elections in Kenya, I was raised to know right and wrong and to care about the difference).

    Going from the reaction to the blatant electoral fraud in this election I hazard to say wananchi CARE about whether things are done in the ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ way, too.

    I hear this phrase being used to persuade Kenyans that essentially-what’s done is done- and right now we have no choice other than to accept the status quo and carry on with their lives. Here’s a few common ‘right or wrong‘s:

    ‘Right or wrong’, the ECK declared a winner,
    ‘Right or wrong’, Kibaki was sworn in,
    ‘Right or wrong’, the elections are over and wananchi should return to building the nation

    Until the next time we need to ask ourselves where we went wrong, eh?

    I could not disagree more with the notion that Odinga/ODM or Kibaki/PNU promoted, supported or orchestrated the clashes that went on around the country-attribute blame where it squarely lies-with wananchi. I say this while fully cognizant that there are those Kenyans that do believe ODM is responsible and as such, a belief does not require evidence or proof to substantiate it.

    However, we’ve seen these clashes before in 1991, 1997, 2001-they are NOT a new phenomenon and if we continue with our blinkered ‘move on’ trend, it’s almost guaranteed we’ll see clashes in future.

    I would also argue that it is indeed undemocratic for Odinga or Musyoka to ‘show true leadership’ by agreeing not to run. Such band aid solutions will not preserve our unity as a nation, they only serve to widen the already gapping rend. If civil strife is in the offing for Kenya, having Odinga or Musyoka step aside will only fuel the fervor-not put it out. As I said, this is NOT what elections are or should be about, an election gives the electorate (the employer) the opportunity to evaluate the performance of their leaders (the employees) and make a decision about whether or not they would like to retain him/her….as we have seen, many Kenyans will not stand for their ‘right of review’ to be interfered with.

    As for the court of public opinion, if as you infer, a clear preference for fantasy over fact exists and we do not care for the concepts of ‘right’ or ‘wrong’, then the best a politician can do is attempt to ‘manage’ his image and the public’s perception of him. He can never control it nor can he control what some believe he is responsible for. That is the bottom line.

  • savin

    The Question is not about Raila getting the Presidency, it is a question of Kenyans getting their CIVIL RIGHTS. Kibaki had the chance to provide that instead he has turned into another Moi.

    Why should Luos not have rights in under Kibaki?
    Why should Kikuyus not have rights under Odinga?

    Lets think about the future, what happens in 2012 if Odinga Wins?
    It time to build institutions and Charter a new constitution giving all Kenyans their Civil Rights in Kenya. Surely that is what we all want.

    Heres more evidence of Rigging
    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/world/story/24743.html

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