Again, this is my understanding.

There are indeed many similarities between Zuma and Raila. I have not heard many of Zuma’s plans, but I hope he knows something about delegation having himself served in executive positions before. His lack of education only becomes relevant if he takes his own counsel and elects to ignore the advice of those who know better than he does.
This is also the great danger with Raila, and I’d be pleased to know from Sijui what informs his optimism on an ODM government. Most of the ideas they announce in their manifesto and other proposals are truly ridiculous, and I find it hard to believe that Nyong’o spawned them. I am also worried by such statements as the one he made on Kenya Airways and Miraa. People, even Presidents, need to know their place. This is the danger with the fantasies about Lee Kwan Yew and Dr Mohammed, not everyone can fit in such shoes. Raila definitely cannot. Change will come from a culture of service and a holding to account, from from educated or nice:???: leaders.

Now, with regard to institutions, both in Kenya and abroad, the danger has always been that when a party or a candidate is too powerful, no institutions can stand in their way. A skilful grassroots politician like George Bush, Zuma or Raila can appeal to the people whether indirectly or directly for permission to walk all over such institutions. George Bush obviously is the best example of this, but the examples of Thatcher, Kohl and even Mahathir Mohammed show that institutions are like putty in a strong leaders hands. In fact, crises only serve to strengthen such a leader’s grip, again GWB after 9/11, or Dr Mohammed during the Asian Financial Crisis.

South Africa will likely go the Zimbabwe route, i.e. forced land repatriation. It is unavoidable if they stick to their present policies that reward a black middle class and further enervate the rural poor. They should try borrow a leaf from Kibaki, or from the Swynnerton Plan. The ANC’s Freedom Charter does not indicate a natural inclination to do this, so it is not likely that they will see the iceberg, not until it is too late.

OSas

I’m a white guy in SA and apart from the ANC inheriting a stagnant economy with a lot of dept, I can hardly see how it was “virtually collapsed”. We can look at Zimbabwe for an example of a collapsing economy. Nothing of the sort happened here.

With regards to the skills shortage, it was exacerbated by the (purposefully) inferior bantu education system of the National Party which I believe was one of the most short sighted and damaging mistakes of the previous regime. South Africa is now reaping the fruits of that policy.

With regards to Zuma – assuming he becomes president – I think the big test will be when his hold on power is threatened. Will he start changing the constitution and implement radical reforms (such as Bob Mugabe) to appease the poor (which will likely ruin SA’s economy), or will he abide by the democratic ideal of a revolving leadership and pass the torch to a successor?

The ideal of limiting the number of terms a leader may serve and ensuring that this is enforced is enormously important for a stable democracy in preventing abuse of power and a possible dictatorship. Sadly this has been neglected in many African states with dire consequences.

To again refer to Zimbabwe, if Bob Mugabe was forced to step down after two terms and make way for a successor, we might not have had the economic meltdown in Zim.